US Housing Market to Stay Flat Into 2009 Or Longer
By 250 News
Prince George, B.C. - Just how long the down turn in the forest industry will last in Canada can be found in the latest reports coming out of the USA.
A US report says single family housing starts will decrease a further 15.1% next year to 900,000. New home sales are expected to drop 5 % to 760,000 while existing home sales are expected to fall 8% to 5.2 million.
The banks are forecasting that the bottom in the market will come in the middle of 2009.
New family housing starts are estimated to be 1.06 million this year, down 27.4% from a year ago. It also forecasts single family home sales to drop 23.9% to 800,000.
Things could get worse if mortgage rates rise in the US in 2008 according to the experts.
Considering that in Canada we build over 300,000 new homes in 2007, with one eighthof the US population, it is easy to explain the figures from the US.
Can we switch from the US market to China? China’s softwood imports from all over the world totaled from January to September is 2,063,288 cubic meters (of softwood logs and lumber) that’s about 900 million board feet or about the same as 3 of the larger PG area sawmills annual production.
That figure represents about ¾ of China's whole year imports and Canada is already supplying over 20% of China's yearly imports.
If Canada could increase its share to 100 % of the Chinese market it still could not offset the loss of the US Sales.
Added to that problem is the ever dwindling market for newsprint which is what the paper mill in Mackenzie was producing. The use of newsprint paper has dropped by over 30% in the past 5 years and is expected to drop 6% in 2008. Industry watchers say the clock is ticking as the internet takes over from the daily newspapers the world over and the demand for this type of paper falls.
The Citizen newspaper was one of the buyers of newsprint from the Abitibi-Bowater paper mill in Mackenzie.
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One pretty good known by now is that we are not going to export our way out of this. The multi-national solution of last man standing is not a very good option either. Neither would be the idea to mess with the markets. It seems the biggest losers will be the employees and there communities.
IMO they should make a new law effective immediately that legislates a full-time work week in any saw mill or planner mill in Canada is now hereby a 30-hour work week, from a 40-hour current work week. Why does it always have to be 40-hours anyways, and why the same for all industries? With a 30-hour work week the employer then splits the difference in loss wage with the employee through a 12.5% raise in the hourly rate. The effect is to put a mere upward pressure on the collective selling price of only a few percent by the 1000 board feet, but in the terms of employment flexibility, and blunting the impact of slow times on the community it is something that IMO would have merit. A concept with shared responsibility for long term success between the employees and the employers, as well as create the potential for setting a new standard across the industry, which is why it would have to be the law.
Time Will Tell