Nice to see our Mayor is on top of things, but it will depend on Canfor's customers willingness to wait 18 months to have their orders filled, whether alternate production can occur to fulfill those orders, and whether or not based on the current climate a market still remains in 18 months.
It will be interesting to hear what the big bosses decide. In the end, it won't matter what our opinion is, the fate lies squarely on the shoulders of Canfor exec.

Keep your fingers crossed.

Hopefully the plant is re-built, as it effects all of Prince George. Now would be a good time to think about building a new industrial area outside the air shed.

It is great that Mayor Colin Kinsley is searching for any avenue to encourage Canfor to locate a plywood plant in PG. We are going to miss Colin.

However the mayor's influence is at the mercy of city cuncil and I've seen Colin very disappointed in this council a time or two. There have been some real beauty's where politics and agendas far outweigh what was needed to keep the city an easy place to invest in.

Good luck and thanks for trying Colin.

I believe the present location is leased land which they keep refering to. CN would probably want to use this for more yard as it is so close to the other yard. Canfor apparantly owns land South of Sintich road which would help with the air quality and access from the new highway expansion.

It seems to me that in the past when there has been some type of disaster like this elswhere in the country, the companies involved that have rebuilt their operations have announced almost immediately after the disaster that they in fact would rebuild. Those that never rebuilt took considerable time to announce they would not be rebuilding.

It would be nice if the same concerns were applied by the mayor and council about the six hundred jobs in jeapordy on River Road.
A good start would be to move the stupid berm!!!!!!

I agree lostfaith however,I think we have allow for the fact that the market is a mess right now and also that this disaster is only a couple of days old.
There is always a certian amount of shock factor when something like this happens, and it takes a while for heads to clear.
I am pretty sure Canfor will take all the time it needs, as well as the facts, into consideration before making an announcment on what they will do.
I would expect that to happen.
And may times when something of this nature happens,the quick announcment to re-build is not followed through on.
Economics,insurance,time factors,etc.etc.all come into play.
Let's keep our fingers crossed!

That berm is so yesterday, in the political world. Colin is yapping about encouraging Canfor to rebuild, as if he or the mighty city council could talk them into it, not likely! Unless maybe the city grants some sort of special priveliges to save Canfor vast amounts of money, then maybe. It is a business, if it is not going to be viable on it's own in the market, it will not be rebuilt.
metalman.

OGDriver: "Now would be a good time to think about building a new industrial area outside the air shed."

That time was many moons ago .. as in a decade ago. In fact, Colin told the citizens of this community that he was working on it when he was not in offecie more than a year.

That is one of the promises he has not kept. Concillor Zorowski, whenever he is approached said the land is available. BS!!

There is no such land ready to go, services, transportation linked, etc.

The pellet plant could have been built there, a new plywood plant now, a possible ethanol plant, and one or two more heavy industrial plants which will likely be in oiur future once the forest products industry is finished with its current shakeup.

As I have said over and over again, this heavy industrial site or sites should be state of the art parks developed for the future of industrial PG, with the latest "green" technologies and incentives which go along with it.

Those on here who think that "green" is anti indutrial simply have no understanding of what it takes these days to get quality industry into a community such as PG. They are part of the olde guarde who have no progressive thinking capacity and whose communities, if left in charge of them, will shrivel up and die.

As others have said, it is Canfor's decision what they will be doing here. Each instance such as this allows them the opportunity to review their activities over the next 2 decades or so. Those activites are province wide. They deal with a high end product, not wafer and fibre boards, but plywood which requires long term access to high end logs. They will stay if they get that here, or go to wherever they can get it with this opportunity give nto them to review their operating locations.

Anyway, once again, this city is unprepared and unable to deal with issues as they arise. That is the legacy we have been left by our City Council and our administration as well.

After 80+ years of flood history, still unprepared for floods, unprepared to relocate industry out of the bowl when the opportunities arise, unable to deal with continuing air quality issues, unable to turn the downtown around, unable to get a known problem bridge rebuilt in a timely fashion, unable to deal with potholes adequately, unable to set a smart growth example when it comes to locating a Community Energy Plant ..... and on and on it goes.

The Mare could use some of his salary to help rebuild the plant.

Cheers

Of course the Mayor and the City want the mill rebuilt, after all they sure pay alot of taxes a year for that place, so now it will sure be a huge loss in tax revenue for the city. That is just my opinion. All I know it is just another blow to our city which is already struggling in the Forest Sector.

Good luck to everyone affected by this fire it will be a long road ahead

Indusry contributes 17% towards the City budget, homeowners contribute 53% towords the City budget. In other words homeowners own 53% of the fire department and industry 17%.

We take all the precaution nesessarty to reduce our fire risk in our homes. I guess Canfor just depends on our fire trucks.

Cheers.

I wonder how NCP's fire insurance works?
Do they have to rebuild the mill in order to collect the insurance?
Do they collect and get to walk away?
IMO they should only beable to collect insurance if they are going to rebuild the mill or similar manufacturing plant.
No rebuild, no collect.
Rebuild the mill with the insurance and sell it off if they no longer wish to operate it.
It would at least leave the possiblity of future employment

I cannot speak specifically to the insurance aspect. However, should they choose not to rebuild, they do have to pay tax on the insurance payout. If they rebuild within a certain amount of time (less than 2 years I believe) then they get to use the insurance proceeds tax free. This is at leaset another reason for them to rebuild. Alot may come down to how good the insurance was. Replacement insurance would be the best. If insurance only covers up to historical cost, or even worse ammortized cost, then I cant imagine they would rebuild.

As previously stated the decision to rebuild, will be made by Jimmy Pattison and Canfor board of directors, and while they may pay lip service to the Mayor and others, they will make the decisions.

If they do rebuild it is within the realm of possibility that the rebuild will take place in Vanderhoof, Quesnel, Houston, BC
Prince George is probably the most expensive place to rebuild.

The action in the foreseeable future is West of Prince George to Prince Rupert, including Kitimat, and North on Highway 37 to open up some mines. I suspect that Terrace, and Smithers will become major distribution points.

Prince Georges population in the next 10 years could very easily drop to 65000 people.

If the mill is rebuilt it will probably be state of the art, meaning way less employees. I wonder how good the insurance coverage is considering they have had fires in the past. I have heard safety issue problems with running the kilns very hot to up production.

If the mill is rebuilt it will probably be state of the art, meaning way less employees. I wonder how good the insurance coverage is considering they have had fires in the past. I have heard safety issue problems with running the kilns very hot to up production.

Palopu
Why is PG the most expensive place to rebuild?

The capital cost of the building is overshadowed by operating costs. I would think the primary consideration will be the same as for many other such operations:

1. long term workforce stability (communities with key ammenities such as work choices for spouses and lower cost of living are a step ahead of others, especially as better trained people are required in the workforce) - yes, I think a new state of the art plant will likely employ fewer

2. access to feedstock - location, location, location

3. access to tranportation

4. access to external maintenance services (ease of transportation for tecnical expertise to fly in from elsewhere)

and on and on ...... the capital cost of the plant ends up being miniscule.

I agree Palopu. That's a very insightful post IMO. I think with out an industrial park ready to go then I can't see PG retaining these jobs because College Heights wasn't there 40-years ago when NCP was built and with air quality such a concern I'm not sure it would be as easy for them to rebuild in that same location especially with the new Fraser Flats neighborhood going in this fall.

Time Will Tell

"Prince Georges population in the next 10 years could very easily drop to 65000 people"

I recall saying something similar to this when the discussions around MPB issues were occurring a while back. The writing was on the proverbial wall. Forestry was expected to decline, there was no concrete plan in place in regards to changing the "face of PG" and diversification plans were in the infancy stage.

IMHO, the safe thing to do right now would be to step back, go into "status quo mode" and try and just keep our head above water for the next few years. That may get us through, but it won't change much and it may result in an eventua drowning. The brave thing to do, again IMO, would be to go full steam ahead with every conceivable plan at diversifying the economy and managing the City affairs to help in those efforts. I think we need to start asking the tough questions and talking about the tough issues. For example:

- Is it reasonable to continue to rely on forestry as the backbone of our future economy?
- Are we okay seeing average incomes reduced to the levels of those in other medium sized cities in BC?
- Are the people of PG ready to take a step or two back, in the hopes that we can take three or four steps forward?
- Most importantly, are we doing enough to prepare people in the City for CHANGE?

If there was ever a time to take a hard look at where we are currently sitting and what we need to do to avoid being in this situation in the future, now is that time. I know the people of PG have the fortitude to get through this, but I think we need to come out of it with a different vision of what we want our City to be in the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years and beyond.

Owl. Vanderhoof, Quesnel, Houston etc; are much closer to feedstock than Prince George. Some logs for NCP are trucked, or railed from 150 miles and beyond Prince George. Taxes and available land is much cheaper in the outlying areas than Prince George. The same Railway and Roads that run through Prince George run through these towns. Transportation would be a little higher but not much.

The biggest covered Planer Mill in North America (Maybe the world) is located in Houston BC (Owned by Canfor) This mill is state of the art, and second to none.

Having people locate in these towns is no big deal. Didnt we already do it in Quesnel 2 Pulp Mills, 1 MDF Plant, and numerous planers. Mackenzie with 1 Pulp Mill 1 Paper Mill and numerous planers. Plus planers at Houston, Vanderhoof, etc;

What were the key ammenities that attracted the industrie and people to these communities?

It seems you dont have a point, or if you do I missed it. You might have a miniscule argument when it comes to air travel, however they seem to survive without it.

Palopu
Why is PG the most expensive place to rebuild?

Palopu just answered that question.

Palopu ....

The post MPB world of forests is a different world. If you have an entire region which has lost 40% or so of trees being harvested, the area needed to harvest the same type of feedstock becomes larger. As you know, a plant like NCP requires the highest quality of logs for their peelers.

In addition, I would not be surprised if they could sell more product if they had it. High grade plywood such as that has a much wider range of use than OSB and the like. SO, they may be interested in building higher capacity. The higher the capacity, the larger the region they need to draw feedstock from.

I do not have a post MPB map based inventory in front of me that a new plant would need to access in order to survive for 20+ years. Maybe you do. I suspect Canfor doesn't either.

I also doubt you have any better idea of where than I where they can potentially market the product. That is one of the reasons why they would have to take some time to decide WHERE to rebuild.

I do know that there is good, non-MPB inventory on their TFL 30 to the north east.

Single industry town characteristics:

Tumbler Ridge .... I assume you know about.

Mining town to he west of us ..... I assuem you know about ....

Mackenzie population history in the past 10 years.
1996 - 5,997
2001 - 5,206 down 13.2% from 1996
2006 - 4,539 down 24.3% from 1996
2008 - ? I do not know what will happen as a result of recent closures.

A mill closure, or an increase in mining or other activity obviously has a major impact on small, single industry towns. Given the size of such towns, a change of 300 jobs either way has more than 10 times the impact on that kind of community than it has on PG and has a miniscule affect on a city such as Vancouver.

Quesnel is a much larger and more diverse city than Mackenzie, Houston, Smithers, etc. It is in the next category of urban development and offers ammenities such as a hospital of reasonable size and more diverse work avaialbility for spouses, more education choices, etc. etc.

Is Quesnel a choice? I do not know. I just know that everything to the west and north and east of PG has to go through PG to get to Quesnel. Even post MPB, that is a lot of feedstock that has to be transported some distance.

Did you ever think that there is a reason why PG is larger than Quesnel? That 3 huge pulp mills were built in PG, not Quesnel? Those same reasons are becoming more and more critical with the increasing cost of fuel for transportation. It will only get worse over the next couple of decades.

You say: "The biggest covered Planer Mill in North America (Maybe the world) is located in Houston BC (Owned by Canfor)"

I wonder if given MPB the mill would have been built, and would have been built to that size and would have been built there.

In a world where jobs can be had anywhere, people begin to choose where they work. Moving households to other communities is not everyone's cup of tea. Loosing value in real estate is not everyone's cup of tea.

Palopu ... the world you grew up in is changing. It is changing in many ways. You are applying old rules to new situations. I do not have the answers. Even Canfor will not when they decide what to do. But you can be relatively certain that the input in decision making will be a bit more complex than what you seem to think.

Hey Pal. Owl is just gearing up for the next election in PG. He has to thnk positive.

Cheers